"The similarities between IL-06 and NY-24 are way too close for my tastes. Way too close. Down to the pattern and roll out and denying recruitment by Rahm while the DCCC sends help to one candidate even though they don't get involved in primaries.
All I can say is BS, and keep your eye on the ball. Roberts looks like he will be better able to compete financially than Cegelis was due to his connections and your media market.
We lost by less than two votes per precinct. Two. They dropped 11 big huge glossy mailers in 8 weeks, and we came within two votes per precinct.
Fight like hell. You can win."
Earlier, in the article to which this comment refers, I talked about how the progressive, grassroots Christine Cegelis campaign nearly beat the institutional, DCCC-recruited campaign of Tammy Duckworth. I referred to the margin of defeat at 3 percent.
Here, Michael is referring to a loss by just 2 votes per precinct. That doesn't sound right, does it? I mean, how can that add up to a 3 percent gap between Cegelis and Duckworth?
Easily. Sadly easily.
The essential thing to keep in mind about this election is that turnout will almost certainly be low, in both the primary and in the general election. Consider last year's hot special election for an open seat in the House of Representatives: Paul Hackett wasn't the only Democrat running for that seat. It was a heated contest in the election of the year, and yet, only three percent of Democrats showed up to vote in the primary.
So, when we talk about the Democratic primary to come between Michael Arcuri and Les Roberts, we need to keep in mind that Arcuri and Roberts are not really competing for the votes of the typical Democrat in the 24th District. The typical Democrat in the 24th District won't vote. No, the contest between Roberts and Arcuri is a battle to win the hearts and minds of the 3 to 5 percent of Democrats in the 24th District who will care enough about politics to go to the polls.
TV advertisements won't be enough, because, unfortunately, television advertisements only reach those Democrats who choose to sit down and watch a lot of television instead of getting out and doing something. The candidates in this race need to think creatively about how to reach the doers, not the sitters and watchers.
The same principle will apply to the general election. As excited and argumentative we get about the race here in discussions on this blog, we're losing touch if we don't remember that, even though this is an extraordinary political year, we're still talking about a mid-term election. The support of committed, active Democrats will mean everything. Support from Democrats who only vote in presidential elections won't mean anything at all.