Sunday, April 16, 2006

Horserace: How Much Money Have the Candidates Brought In So Far?

24th district fundraising new york

Here you see the fundraising statistics for the 2006 election cycle in New York State's 24th congressional district so far:

Democrat Michael Arcuri has raised $196,657
Democrat Les Roberts has raised $156,018
Republican Ray Meier has raised $176,090
Republican Brad Jones has raised $68,137

On the Republican side, it seems that much of the angry right wing Republican money has gone away from Brad Jones to Ray Meier. It seems that the right wingers who hated Sherwood Boehlert expect to have Ray Meier firmly in their camp.

On the Democratic side, the difference between candidates is less profound. Michael Arcuri is clearly the frontrunner when it comes to raising money, but it's just as clear that Les Roberts is solidly in the race.

New Republican candidate Ken Camera from Geneva was not active in this campaign until after the close of the first quarter. Three months from now, it will be interesting to see what role he'll play in the financial aspect of this campaign.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ok. I've reviewed Arcuri's quarterly filing. Several points.

Arcuri has a number of $4,000 contributors which means only $2,100 is allowed to be spent in the primary and the balance can only be used in the general election. Same as Meier and why wouldn't he - both coming from Oneida County with similar advisors thinking the size of the numbers is more important than the use. Arcuri has decent depth and has a lot of attorneys supporting him which would be expected. Someone was commenting yesterday that previous candidates for congress had support limited to their family - Arcuri wouldn't have the fundraising he did without a large family. Check out the number of pages of Arcuris making big contributions.

Only two unions making contributions and the UFCW money is $5k primary and $5k general. Again, lots of money limited to the general election in his fundraising. On an apples to apples primary only comparison, Roberts, Arcuri and Meier are all raising similar amounts of money.

On the expenditure side, Arcuri only has one month of rent paid on his headquarters vs three months of rent for Roberts. Arcuri is paying $700 and Roberts $750. I see cell phone bills, but no phone bills in Arcuri's filings. And he spend a small fortune on his website design, almost $5k. There is no emphasis on communications in person or by phone.

Arcuri has no paid staff so far and Roberts has a couple anyway. Meier is so new he hasn't spent a dime yet. The point of that is that Arcuri may well be less well organized than Roberts at this point and that will be critical as time goes on if Arcuri is not going to run full time for the seat. As an elected state legislator, Meier is campaigning full time by definition.

Finally, I see no DC based consultant in the Arcuri filings. If you don't get a national consultant on board, you haven't got a snowball's chance in hell. The lack of a consultant and the lack of union funding depth go hand in hand.

It only looks like Arcuri has taken one out of district trip, probably to the DCCC for a candidate seminar, so I really wonder if he is considered a second tier candidate as the MSNBC story rated candidates. If he was a top tier candidate, you'd see a consultant on board and much more union money.

Brad Jones' fundraising was pitiful and maybe he doesn't get it or maybe he didn't really have much chance with Boehlert in the race, but if he doesn't put that part of the campaign in gear, Meier will win the Republican nod by default.

Finally boys and girls, I don't see any of the candidates getting much money from folks in the other counties in this district. I don't see the many county party chairs writing checks. I see a lot of friends, family and business associates. If you need to look at anything and try to gauge the depth of support and organization, the extent to which hundreds of folks will be motivated to gather signatures, the extent to which further money can be raised in the district, look at that.

Anonymous said...

Let's look at this from another angle. How does this race and the Democratic candidates in it stack up against some neighboring races?

Take the 25th District in Syracuse. Republican Jim Walsh has been there forever. He is being challenged by a few Democrats, with Dan Maffei being the Democratic candidate who will enter the General election. Dan raised $106K this cycle and $100K previously and this against an incumbent he won't beat.

In the 29th District, stretching from Corning to Rochester, Democrat Eric Massa is running for incumbent Republican John Kuhl's seat and Massa has already raised over a quarter million dollars. Massa already has significant PAC support and $5k of IBEW money in the first quarter versus just $2k for Arcuri and none for Roberts.

So we have two candidates in neighboring districts going against incumbents and both have back to back quarters in excess of $100,000 in contributions. That first big quarter was fun for Arcuri and Meier, but the question is whether they can sustain it. Roberts increased his fundraising in his second quarter (and the previous one was a short quarter) but can he increase it further?

Frankly, the 24th does not look high on the DCCC radar screens and all the candidates are late coming to the race. The key is organization and Arcuri doesn't even have a phone number or street address to reach him at. He's still using the P.O. box.

While Arcuri has more money in total, a good chunk is in the lockbox until after the primary. Roberts is ahead on organization, yet neither has matched the fundraising of Democrats in more challenging races in neighboring districts. And Robert's supporters wouldn't be giving to Arcuri as Arcuri's supporters wouldn't be giving to Roberts so it's not like the money is divided. It's all friends, family and business associate money.

With a Republican registration edge, I'm wondering if one of the Democrats can really break out here or if both will stumble to the primary and the winner will stumble to the general with the stumbling and bumbling Ray Meier who might just beat the financially stumbling Brad Jones.

We need to see much more work and much less chest thumping here or all the contributions will be for naught.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with a primary. In fact it will strengthen the eventual single candidate for a very brief and intense dash to the finish. Meanwhile, it's an opportunity to test your systems, to increase name recognition and to prove you really are worthy of support.

A little advice for Mike Arcuri - step down as DA and run for Congress full time if you really want to win.

A little advice for Les Roberts - start working the County Chairs and County Committee members individually for support and don't just rely on the progressive network if you really want to win.

A little advice for both - be prepared to pay for professional signature gatherers to get you on the ballot because I don't think either of you understand the extreme difficulty of gathering an adequate number of signatures in New York State in a multi-county Congressional District gerrymandered into existance just a few years ago.

Anonymous said...

Look at the cash on hand. Arcuri has $175,000 since he spent only $10K. Roberts only has $100K since he spent $55K. What is Roberts spending his money on? The name of the game at this point is fundraising and if Roberts has spent $55K to raise $150K, he's running one of the most inefficient campaigns ever.

Also keep in mind that the money Arcuri raises now will allow him to raise more money later on, so the gap between him and Roberts will only grow. Roberts needs to understand that his chances of winning the primary are getting slimmer and slimmer. Is only hope is to run a scorched earth campaign--a campaign that will only help the Republicans come November.

If Roberts and his supporters really want to take back this district, it's time for him to back out and throw his support to Arcuri. Les, you're a good guy with much to offer, but it's time to do the noble thing and get out.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 6:02 wrote:

I see no DC based consultant in the Arcuri filings. If you don't get a national consultant on board, you haven't got a snowball's chance in hell. The lack of a consultant and the lack of union funding depth go hand in hand.

Give me a break. Roberts's DC consultant (Christiensen & Associates) is third-tier at best. The top consultants want winners and they are waiting to see how this fundraising cycle goes. The cycle is that fundraising brings the consultants, not the other way around.

Also, if the presence of a DC consultant on Roberts's payroll is so significant, what good has it done for Roberts? He spent more to raise less than Arcuri. He's made no inroads among the local party organizations. He has no union support (supposedly the key benefit of hiring his "DC consultant." His name recognition with primary voters is still next to zero. Looks to me like Roberts is getting suckered.

Anonymous said...

Did anyone notice that Robert's campaing manager put nearly two grand into the the campaign? Isn't there some rule about this? Couldn't Roberts be paying his manager with the expectation that a certain percent will get funnelled back into the campaign. Looks pretty fishy to me.

Anonymous said...

So if a DC consultant goes hand in hand with union funding, how come Arcuri got several thousand from unions and Roberts got zilch?

Just asking.

Anonymous said...

I don't see Ray Meier stepping down from his State Senate seat to run full time either. I don't see Ray Meier even bothering to campaign at all. Candidates don't quit their jobs to run and all those lifetime republican candidates sure don't do that everytime they want to kick themselves upstairs. Candidates usually have jobs and have to eat and pay bills the same as everybody else. I don't see how Arcuri or any candidates could just walk away from their jobs to run for office.

Anonymous said...

http://uticaod.com/apps/
pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060417/NEWS/
604170306/1001/NEWS01

"Record Spending Expected in Contest To Succeed Boehlert"

Anonymous said...

http://romesentinel.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060417/NEWS10/104170038

Looks like over $174,000 of Arcuri's money was in the form of individual contributions.

That was more than Roberts has raised all together, so there goes that arguement Jonny.

Anonymous said...

I've been waiting for an intelligent response to my first two posts here. I guess I'll have to settle for a quote from the OD article someone cited here:

"This is the big time," said Utica College political scientist Dick Emmert, who has managed all of Arcuri's political campaigns but will soon yield to a Democratic congressional committee-trained consultant. "We need somebody with a broader perspective than I have."

Anonymous said...

You can see why Tytler was a flop.

http://query.nictusa.com/
cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00419200

How come the County Chairman and the patronage appointed County Attorney and various other Democrats in Cortland didn't ante up?

ken camera said...

Hi 24. I think it is time that you put me on your page. As far as how much i have raised so far for my campaign, you can put my bar graph at about $50. I contributed that and printed up 4x6 postcards that i am distributing in the Geneva area.
But why don't we get to issues. I have the "common cause" issues and no one paid for these. Why? Because my platform is closer to the bullseye of what a representative sample of regular people would want to see as action items in getting back a government they would be proud of. This platform by the way appeals to the broad middle that is going to finally figure it out this election.
I hope you pass the word, that if people want a champion for their issues, then i am their man - democrat, republican, working family, or green....
Please, help get this grass roots campaign off the ground by sending people to my website.

www.kencamera.us

Thanks very much....

Ken Camera
Candidate for the 24th Congressional District, NYS