Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Is Arcuri / Roberts Contest a new version of Duckworth / Cegelis?

Goodness me, the Democratic primary race is getting interesting. Michael Arcuri clearly has the institutional Democratic edge over Roberts, with exclusive assistance from the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee), but most Democratic county committees in the district are not rushing to endorse Michael Arcuri. The Les Roberts campaign has been able to match the the Arcuri campaign with donations that can be spent on the primary campaign, and all indications are that the Les Roberts campaign is using the second quarter to expand its outreach locally and nationally. Roberts is in the race until the end.

This dynamic is strongly similar to the one set up in Illinois earlier this year, when progressive, issues-oriented Christine Cegelis took on the DCCC's hand-picked candidate, Tammy Duckworth. Duckworth got the nomination, but just barely. The Cegelis for Congress campaign worked like hell mobilizing progressive grassroots support, and Cegelis came in only 3 percent behind Duckworth.

We're getting a good indication of what to expect from the Les Roberts campaign by their recent addition of Clint Raulsten as field director. Raulsten was the field director for the Cegelis campaign.

The Arcuri campaign and the Roberts campaign are both very strong at what they do, but what they do is very different. This campaign will be a test of strategies as much as of strength, and the outcome may well turn on the direction that the events of the next few months takes the public in general, favoring a play-it-safe institutional campaign or a high-energy campaign based on issues and ideals.

Either way this primary contest goes, the struggle for Democratic outreach in both camps will prepare the way for an active and successful Democratic electorate in the fall. The Republicans, it seems, don't have the luck to have two strong candidates. The 24th District GOP is putting all its resources into the Ray Meier campaign, and if that campaign fails, they will have no strong understudy to turn to.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you're right. I was wondering if anyone else saw the comparison between the two campaigns. I think it is good that Roberts brought on Raulsten - he must know well how to run a campaign against the DCCC machine.

From what I heard the Cegalis campaign was very much the grassroots favorite, they were just crushed in spending. Despite that, only losing by 3 points is not bad. That is Chicago; I am guessing our media market is just a BIT less expensive, so money for advertising will not be quite as important (though important, still).

Did anyone see the Steven Cobert show on Monday night? They had Jan Schneider on - she is running in Florida for Katherine Harris's show. She won the nomination last time around against her current opponent with 150K and then lost in the general just barely. The DCCC is now endorsing her primary opponent - the one she beat last time. No wonder the DCCC loses all the time - no wonder we have a Republican House. UGH.

Anonymous said...

Excellent post Jon. The big question is can Arcuri get a qualified campaign manager on board if he isn't willing to run full time?

I don't think it's possible to win this race on a part time basis and nobody is going to want to work for a losing campaign.

I think this gives a leg up to Roberts at this point.

Anonymous said...

Just news for the blogg, Michael Arcuri has secured the unanimous endorsement of the Herkimer County Democratic Committee to go along with the Oneida County edorsement.

Anonymous said...

Yes, of course, the same contest is being replayed all over the country, with the DCCC continuing to lose races without ever pausing to consider changing its tactics--to actually stand for something, to stand for someone who actually stands for something.

Biggus Dickus said...

"We're getting a good indication of what to expect from the Les Roberts campaign by their recent addition of Clint Raulsten as field director."

I couldn't agree more. With every passing day this race just gets better and better. I can only hope Clint lives up to the high standards he set for himself in the Laesch and Cegalis campaigns.

Your friend forever,
Biggus Dickus

Anonymous said...

But didn't Raulsten lose that race?

Anonymous said...

I hear that Roberts has a poll showing he's getting creamed among like primary voters and that he runs 13 points worse than Arcuri against Meier.

Any truth to this?

Anonymous said...

I just took a poll of registered Democrats in my family. I'm the other one knows who he is. The rest said "who"?

I'll bet it's too early to vote too eh?

Anonymous said...

see this link for essentially the same news ...

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/042606.html

Anonymous said...

Funny, I don't know anybody who knows Les Roberts either.

Guess it's too early to vote, eh?

Anonymous said...

12:09 am - you seem to be waking up a bit. April is very early for name recognition. What you do with your first poll is establish a baseline, not pat yourself on the back.

Fortunately for both campaigns, I think you are just a novice onlooker.

Anonymous said...

Hey 9:27, my poll was exactly like 8:07's poll. Apparently his poll counts ok because of its "outcome". Fortunately for the Arcuri campaign, you are on Les Roberts's side.

michael in chicago said...

The similarities between IL-06 and NY-24 are way too close for my tastes. Way too close. Down to the pattern and roll out and denying recruitment by Rahm while the DCCC sends help to one candidate even though they don't get involved in primaries.

All I can say is BS, and keep your eye on the ball. Roberts looks like he will be better able to compete financially than Cegelis was due to his connections and your media market.

We lost by less than two votes per precinct. Two. They dropped 11 big huge glossy mailers in 8 weeks, and we came within two votes per precinct.

Fight like hell. You can win.

Anonymous said...

I've just heard about your "take back 24", which after reading these comments will never happen. There's not a one of you with a days political experience, just alot of ego and ridiculous chatter..just very sad.
No wonder you've been out of office for 50 years.

Anonymous said...

1:13 you are actually wrong that no one on this board has any political experience whatsoever, you might be surprised,so you need another psychic hotline to call. This board is for regular people who care about their candidates, not for obviously seasoned and totally sucessful politically experienced people like yourself. People like you used to call themselves brain surgeons on the net in the old days. But really it doesn't matter who we are any longer, now that we have an expert like yourself on this blog taking time out from your busy schedule in major campaigns to help set us all straight. You can imagine we are all infinitely grateful.

Anonymous said...

Let me see if I have this right. You guys are all excited because Les Roberts brought on a campaign whiz who represented another candidate who lost. Do I have that right?

Curious said...

4:34--I called the Roberts office, which, unlike the Arcuri office, actually has a phone. They say they've done no such polling yet. Clearly this is another Arcuri-campaign-inspired piece of B.S. Kinda pathetic. Thanks for sharing.

Anonymous said...

I'm cracking up here. The polls were family polls from two people to make a point. One guy said he polled his family and the other one said he did the same thing. You needed to call Les Roberts to figure that out? What the heck are you talking about? Thanks for sharing.

Curious said...

6:17--Too bad you're cracking up. This is what I was responding to:

"Anonymous said...
I hear that Roberts has a poll showing he's getting creamed among like primary voters and that he runs 13 points worse than Arcuri against Meier.

Any truth to this?"

The answer is "No, none; it's typical Arcuri campaign B.S."

I really couldn't care less that your mom and Uncle Louie never heard of Les Roberts.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure Les Roberts heard of Les Roberts.

The Utican said...

I happen to know that the "poll" mentioned is NOT part of any campaign B.S.
Here's the campaign law:

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/portal/page?_pageid=153,42096,153_53318:153_53330&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

TITLE 9 OF THE OFFICIAL COMPILATION OF CODES, RULES AND REGULATIONS OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK SUBTITLE V
§ 6201.2 Use of Public Opinion Polls
No candidate, political party or committee shall attempt to promote the success or defeat of a candidate by directly or indirectly disclosing or causing to be disclosed the results of a poll relating to a candidate for such an office or position, unless within 48 hours after such disclosure, they provide the following information concerning the poll to the board or officer with whom statements or copies of statements of campaign receipts and expenditures are required to be filed by the candidate to whom such poll relates:
(a) The name of the person, party or organization that contracted for or who commissioned the poll and/or paid for it.
(b) The name and address of the organization that conducted the poll.
(c) The numerical size of the total poll sample, the geographic area covered by the poll and any special characteristics of the population included in the poll sample.
(d) The exact wording of the questions asked in the poll and the sequence of such questions.
(e) The method of polling—whether by personal interview, telephone, mail or other.
(f) The time period during which the poll was conducted.
(g) The number of persons in the poll sample: the number contacted who responded to each specific poll question; the number of persons contacted who did not so respond.
(h) The results of the poll.

Why would the Robert's Campaign leak this data if it was true? They'd be forced to do a full disclosure of the poll results.
And the supposed results are not flattering to them.

Any other campaign would release this data immediately for the exact opposite reason. An opposing campaign that had such negative polling data in hand regarding an opponent would release the results and call on the opposition to withdraw from the contest. It would be irresponsible for another campaign that was trailing so badly to remain in the race.

That was an obviously fabricated comment which I WOULD NOT have left unmoderated.

Seriously, the campaigns involved are professionally run and wouldn't so blatantly violate campaign law

Norway said...

Utican--

Thanks for clarifying this. I had also assumed that this fake-poll disinformation was coming from the campaign and not just a weasly "supporter." I'm glad to learn I was wrong.

Anonymous said...

And most importantly, any polling done so far is baseline polling. It's desigend to establish where you start from so that later polls can evaluated the effectiveness of your publicity and the impact of your positions.

Geez...sometimes you guys sound like small town lawyers thinking they can do something significant with their lives. The proximity of Syracuse's law school seems to pollute us with fringe lawyers who can barely squeeze a living out of their communities and want hang on someone elses coattails for a ride on the gravy train.

Anonymous said...

What's Mike's position on the strike?

http://www.news10now.com/content/
top_stories/default.asp?ArID=65195