Tuesday, March 28, 2006

County By County: Democrats in the 24th District

A couple days ago, I wrote a quick article discussing the fact that, in spite of prideful claims by Oneida County Democrats that nobody can win the 24th District Democratic nomination without winning Oneida County, Oneida County actually contains a minority of the Democrats in the 24th District.

The article clearly upset many Oneida Democrats, but facts are facts. In order for a Democrat to win the 24th District Democratic nomination, the best bet for a Democrat is to reach out beyond the borders of Oneida County. A Democrat like Michael Arcuri or Leon Koziol could easily win the nomination contest in Oneida County and lose the district.

A lot of people seem to forget that there is no electoral college for this primary race. A Democrat who gets the majority of votes in a county does NOT seize all the votes for that county. If Bruce Tytler, for example, got just 20 percent of the votes in Oneida County, all those votes would remain with him, even if Mike Arcuri got over 50 percent of the Oneida County vote. Then, by getting a majority of the vote in most of the rest of the counties in the 24th District, Bruce Tytler could coast to an easy primary victory over Arcuri, in spite of the loyalty of Oneida County Democrats to their local guy.

As I've pointed out at the local blog Finding Ulysses, high turnout in counties other than Oneida can easily counter for the Oneida Democrats' raw weight. Typically, less than ten percent of voters actually turn out for a primary election, so organized turnout efforts can turn presumptions inside out. It's a matter of simple math, but some Oneida County Democrats seem unable to grasp it. Let me provide the information about distribution of Democrats in New York's 24th District, then, in text and graphic form, to make it plain.

24th district democrats new york

Broome County: 6.7 percent of district Democrats
Cayuga County: 12.3 percent of district Democrats
Chenango County: 6.5 percent of district Democrats
Cortland County: 7.5 percent of district Democrats
Herkimer County: 8.9 percent of district Democrats
Oneida County: 30.9 percent of district Democrats
Ontario County: 3.7 percent of district Democrats
Otsego County: 6.8 percent of district Democrats
Seneca County: 5.2 percent of district Democrats
Tioga County: 2.4 percent of district Democrats
Tompkins County: 9 percent of district Democrats


Anonymous said...

Why is everyone so against Michael Arcuri? I am not following the recent comments, shouldn't this be open to the voters and then the Democratic Party just back whoever comes out on top? This is a serious question, no sarcasm, just looking for an answer because I have been reading a lot about the candidates and have not seen a reason that Arcuri would not be a good candidate.

Anonymous said...

There is one big strike against Arcuri as there is against Tytler. You can't successfully run for Congress when your opponents are going to be running full time.

Anonymous said...

The last post is funny. My take on this is that people are upset at the Democratic party for jumping in where they don't belong. Voters decide races, not parties. This is not the early 20th century. Parties are - and if this race is any indication should be - dying slowly. No surprise that 30% of this district is not registered with any party. Parties should support candidateS, not just a candidate.

I think all the candidates are qualified and - though I have not seem them all - they all seem to have different backgrounds and policy angles. I read a posting about having debates from a couple days ago. Debates, comparing position papers, and getting to know the candidates will help to bring the Democratic party the strongest nominee.

Anonymous said...

Cayuga County is set to endorse Arcuri.

Anonymous said...

9:26 pm - how could this happen? Why aren't they supporting the neighboring Cortland candidate Tytler? What is the Cortland party chair doing anyway?

Anonymous said...

"how could this happen?"

When will you guys wake up and realize that Oneida County will control who wins this election? Come on folks, its not rocket science. What is the definition of insanity?...Attempting the same act, over and over, expecting a different result. That is what you guys are doing. Your heads must be hurting from banging them against the wall.

Anonymous said...

Oneida County is an armpit second only to some of it's eastern neighbors. Sorry, no votes here for a parochial candidate from the corruptest small cities in upstate.

Anonymous said...

Corrupt county? Give me a break. Mike Arcuri is a dedicated public servant who has won our county support and who will have no problem gaining the support of the real Democrats in the 24th. One consolation, Roberts will probably get endorsements from all the used to be Greens or no parties turned Democrats just so they could use the people they despise so much.

Anonymous said...

Corrupt is correct. I remember working in Utica back in the 70s when the mob rubouts were identified by the penis being cut off and left in the dead guy's mouth.

The absolute corruption of the Talarico family who miled UFCW Local One and the UFCW International of millions of dollars. Mob connected.

Oneida County is notorious upstate for it's organized crime activities, for it's utterly inbred political hierarchy and for it's sheer economic failure save for government spending.

If it wasn't for Troy, you would be the armpit of New York State.

You are the epitome of upstate failure.

Anonymous said...

"when the mob rubouts were identified by the penis being cut off and left in the dead guy's mouth."

It is loud mouths like you that ended up in those positions. Watch the online posting buddy, its not as anonymous as you may think.

Anonymous said...

8:05 pm - thanks for confirming the observations about the stink coming from Oneida County.