Sunday, September 10, 2006

Dangerous Numbers for Michael Arcuri: 7.6 and 7.6

7.6 and 7.6 - these are the Voter Motivation Index scores Constituent Dynamics found in their poll of New York's 24th congressional district - for Democrats and for Republicans, respectively (or not respectively, come to think of it).

These numbers are the same. Should they be?

Here we are in a year when the Democrats have the first reasonable chance in living memory of gaining the congressional seat of the 24th district, when the Republican agenda is at its most exposed and reviled since Watergate, when the Republican President is disapproved of by most voters in the district, when the Democrats have had two frustratingly close yet unsuccessful presidential bids in a row, and when the national Democratic Party is giving unprecedented levels of support.

Democratic motivation to vote should be much, much higher than Republican motivation. It's not. Why?

Let me put out a wild idea for an explanation: It could have something to do with the fact that the Democratic candidate for Congress won the nomination through behind-the-scenes maneuvering, not through an appeal to the voters, has created the impression that he takes the Democratic vote for granted, and in general has been extremely slow and weak in communicating a compelling message to Democratic voters.

I know. It's a crazy explanation - especially when it's so easy to blame the Utica Observer-Dispatch for not getting the message out about both candidates in an equitable manner.

Remind me again: Why are we in the position where the Democratic candidate relies upon the whims of newspaper reporters to get out his message?


Anonymous said...

Here comes the mud...

24 Independent said...

Well, let them come at it. Part of our responsibility as citizens is to sort through these messages with intelligence. As much as I criticize the campaigns for not doing enough, the laziness of the candidates has nothing on the laziness of our district's citizens, by and large. With some notable exceptions, the people in our district seem to be of the attitude that being a citizen merely means that you were born here, and that you get to have a good government without doing any work for it.

We can blame others all we want, but if we the citizens weren't so content to sit on our fat behinds, we wouldn't be dealing with such a dirty, messed up political system.

Anonymous said...

If you look at the crosstabs in this poll, you'll see high motivation for "Strong Democrats" (8.23). The standout low motivation (6.68) is in the "Weak Democrat" category. Republicans are more even (7.4 & 7.0). A big concern is that the Weak Dem's are less motivated than the Undecided/Others (7.05)! Apparently people with a generally Democratic affinity won't actually vote Arcuri without some active campaigning to persuade them that he's their man.