Monday, August 14, 2006

News of Arcuri's 4 Point Poll Lead Does Not Abound

Last night, at almost 11:00, an anonymous reader left the following question: "No mention of the poll showing Arcuri with a 4 point lead?"

Short answer: No.

Full answer: I'm not mentioning it. The reason? I've haven't really heard much about it.

Is this news of a poll with Arcuri in the lead in the Utica Observer-Dispatch? No. Is the news in any of the pro-Arcuri blogs? No. Is the news on any blogs at all? No. Is the news on Michael Arcuri's campaign web site? No. Is it anywhere else I look? No.

The Republican blogger who calls himself "Biggus Dickus" wrote a story related to polling awhile ago, but that posting wasn't really about a poll on the competition between Arcuri and Meier. Rather, he passed along a questionable comment from the Rothenberg Report that Zogby International is "a controversial pollster". I'm rolling my eyes at that one.

Maybe there is such a poll, and maybe there isn't. I have heard from a couple of sources in the last week that Ray Meier had commissioned a poll and the results would soon be released... if Meier were in the lead. Maybe that's the poll that the anonymous tipster questioned me about last night. Maybe.

So, I'm happy to pass along to you this question about a supposed poll left by a reader who chose to keep his or her name a secret. Take the news for what it's worth, which is not much.

First of all, a poll finding four percent lead does not probably show a lead at all. Typically, that four percent would be within the margin of error, or darn near it.

Secondly, most people, even most likely voters in our district outside of Oneida County (which is most of them) still do not know who Ray Meier and Michael Arcuri are. Given this relative ignorance of the candidates even at this late date, I'll be suspicious of any poll that purports to give a definite answer of who is ahead.

Third, what grabs my attention much more than any supposed poll showing a slight gap between Mike Arcuri and Ray Meier is the more concrete picture of who is covering this story, and who isn't.

Who's covering the story about this poll? Well, so far, there's what I'm writing now. Nobody else is saying anything.

That leaves me with doubts about the veracity of the story - no insult meant to myself. Maybe, in a few hours, the poll results will be officially released, and everyone will be gabbing on about them. That would be great... except not everyone would be gabbing on about them.

Bob Hyde will not be gabbing on about them. Bob Hyde, who already has a blog, and who is a member of the Oneida County Democratic Committee, has announced that he won't be writing about the campaign by Michael Arcuri for the open seat in Congress anymore. He says that he just doesn't have the time anymore.

This congressional race is supposed to be one of the biggest this year, and it's a very big year for congressional races - the biggest in 12 years. Bob Hyde happens to be placed at the epicenter of this story, with close contact with some of the Oneida County Democrats who have been at the core of Arcuri's campaign.

Now, Bob Hyde says he's not going to be bothered writing about Michael Arcuri anymore. Hyde says that he's going to be writing about John Murad, who is running for the 47th state Senate seat, and Dave Gordon, who is running for the for the 115th Assembly seat. That's not exactly hot campaign blog property.

What gives?

I have no reason to think that the Arcuri for Congress campaign ship is sinking (as far as I can tell, it's really never left port), but here we see a rat fleeing the ship at the very time it ought to be clambering toward the galley.

If Michael Arcuri can't keep fanatic supporter Bob Hyde writing about his campaign, how well will Arcuri fare with the rest of the press?

I'll keep writing about this campaign, that's for sure, because it gets more curious with every passing week.


This morning, Cortland, 10:00 AM, 10 Main Street in front of the Community Restaurant -
and their plans to destroy Social Security


Biggus Dickus said..., I didn't make that comment. It's a quote from the Rothenberg Report. The original posting can be found here:

Your friend forever,
Biggus Dickus

Curious said...

I've heard about the mythical poll, too, although I must say 4 points doesn't mean squat in this race and is probably not even newsworthy. Maybe Bob Hyde was (politely, I trust) ASKED not to continue his rants. Some might consider that a plus for the campaign. Or am I being harsh? His last few posts haven't been that bad.

24 Independent said...

Sorry, Biggus -

My bad for overlooking the italics. Let me change this to attribute the weird comment to Rothenberg.

Anonymous said...

Running from Bush. Meier is mentioned in this article.

Anonymous said...

Huuuuge turnout for the protest and many more than paid to hear Meier and his right wing pal. $125 for coffee and conversation with them? Geez Louise! The demo rocked!!