It's amazing to me that the Ray Meier for Congress campaign would choose to release the results of its latest poll to the public. Oh, sure, the poll contradicts the claims by Michael Arcuri that he is ahead in the polls, but the poll results aren't a great reflection on Ray Meier either.
Yes, the poll shows that Ray Meier is about ten points ahead in the poll (eleven points in Oneida County - so much for the Oneida County Democrats arguing that Michael Arcuri can win the race because he's from Oneida County, and that the rest of the district doesn't matter). But what's the margin of error of that poll? It's much larger than the margin of error from Arcuri's poll. Meier's poll has a margin of error of about 6 percentage points. That means that the poll only reliably shows a four percentage point lead for Ray Meier.
That's not much at all, especially when you consider what should be embarrassing to both candidates: The huge group of people in our district who, with just two months until Election Day, say that they're undecided. 25 percent say they can't make up their mind whether to vote for Ray Meier or Michael Arcuri. That's just six percent less than those who say they'll vote for Arcuri.
Mind that these poll results are for likely voters. They're not just ordinary citizens, but citizens who are the most likely to be paying attention to politics, and taking part in it.
These are the kind of results you get when the candidates try to coast their way to victory, saying not much of anything to appeal to anyone. Most of the substance of this campaign has come when Ray Meier and Mike Arcuri try to tear each other down with little papercut accusations about things like "Skippygate" or Ray Meier spending campaign money without reporting it quite correctly. Other than that, all we voters hear is a bunch of generic garbage like "Hi. My name is _____, and I'm running for Congress. I support people having jobs."
What does Michael Arcuri stand for? What does Ray Meier stand for? Nobody really knows. Watching these candidates campagin has been like watching a battle of between Quaker and Cream of Wheat over the oatmeal market.
The next session of the House of Representatives will be making historic decisions about the very core of what it means to be an American, but you wouldn't know it by watching Arcuri and Meier campaign. The strategy employed by both sides seems to be to bore the vast majority of voters with mind-numbingly banal babble, in the hopes that the dedicated voters of their side will be able to outnumber the fanatics of the others.