Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Les Roberts the Frontrunner: Eight Point Analysis

One of our readers has made the mistaken conclusion that the Les Roberts for Congress campaign is ahead of his competitors merely in terms of fundraising. Given the focus of yesterday's article on the surprising fundraising success of Les Roberts during the period ending 12/31/05, such a misinterpretation is understandable. However, as I measure it, there are fully eight important aspects of campaigning that Les Roberts has dominated, and it is these eight aspects together that make Les Roberts the current Democratic frontrunner.

1. First, Les Roberts is far, far, far, far ahead in terms of raising money. In fact, as of the last filing, Les Roberts is the ONLY candidate who had raised ANY money. Roberts has already raised much more money than was ever raised by Jeff Miller during the entire 2004 campaign cycle. Nope, Mike Arcuri had not actually gathered any donations as of December's filing deadline - more on that tomorrow.

2. Les Roberts has dominated the media coverage.

3. Les Roberts is the only candidate with a campaign headquarters.

4. Les Roberts is the only candidate to have been touring the district, making speeches to promote his campaign, and meeting voters as he's done so.

5. Les Roberts is the only candidate to have even written, much less made, a formal announcement speech.

6. Les Roberts is the only candidate with any significant online presence. This doesn't just mean that Les Roberts has a web site, whereas the other Democratic candidates don't. It also means that he has dominated the blog coverage.

7. Les Roberts is the only candidate with a reputation that transcends just one part of the district.

8. Les Roberts is ahead in terms of time. Les Roberts has about a two month head start on the other Democratic candidates.

In each one of these eight aspects, Les Roberts is ahead. Taken together, these eight aspects of the dominance of the Les Roberts campaign make the task of any Democrat who wants to take frontrunner status away from Les Roberts quite daunting.

These eight aspects are all measurable features of a campaign, and that's important, because right now, three of the four campaigns for the Democratic nomination are unknown. We don't know if any of the candidates has raised any money since January 1. We don't know what positions any of the candidates, besides Les Roberts, take on the important issues of the day. We don't even know if these three mystery candidates really know what their positions on the issues are.

People are making a lot of speculations about Bruce Tytler, Mike Arcuri, and Leon Koziol right now, but they don't have much basis for those speculations.

We, the Democratic voters of the 24th District, need to be disciplined enough to base our choice of candidate on facts, not speculation. Campaigns by rumor and nasty whispers rely on deception as much as truth.

Maybe that's a ninth aspect of the Les Roberts campaign that has been superior to the other campaigns. Les Roberts has been the only Democratic candidate so far to make his campaign open and accessible to the public. That tells us a lot about what kind of Congressman Les Roberts would be.

Things can change. Come the April filing deadline, we may learn that some other candidate has surpassed expectations and caught up to Les Roberts. Until then, Les Roberts is clearly the man to beat.


Anonymous said...

Bruce Tytler Bruce Tytler, Bruce Tytler, Bruce Tytler, Bruce Tytler
Prove you're not in the tank for some other candidate. Your post was intended to boost your guy

24 Independent said...


Is the mere name Bruce Tytler supposed to be a refutation for each of these points?

Listen, I've talked to Bruce Tytler on the telephone. He seems like a really nice guy, and intelligent. I'm sure he's capable of quite a bit. But, to suggest that he's the frontrunner, when he hasn't even declared whether he's going to campaign, and he's probably around 60 or 70 thousand dollars behind Les Roberts by now, is not credible.

I asked in the article that we deal with facts, here. You're not bringing up any facts, just saying the name "Bruce Tytler". I'm not going to moderate your comment away, but it's certainly not constructive.

Knock off the "your guy" stuff. I don't have a guy, and I'm not in the tank for anyone. I'll be going to a gathering where Mike Arcuri will be giving a talk tonight (campaign related or not?), and will give it coverage tomorrow. I've already addressed this point, at length, at:

Now, how about some substance?

Anonymous said...

Once Tytler announces he is running, Mr. Roberts will not keep rolling in the great green grass of campaign contribution, and Bruce Tytler will have no problem catching up. I heard a rumor about large coffers for Mr. Tytler, but I'm not too sure about election law so I won't even try to guess at a number.

24 Independent said...

I heard a rumor that Tina Turner will be entering the race, and will use her millions of dollars to beat out all other candidates, but will run with a platform of requiring all children under the age of 7 to wear dog collars.

Now, can we stop the conjecture and deal with the facts, please?

Anonymous said...

Your candidate just doesn't have the local juice.

24 Independent said...

Again: He's not my candidate. Nobody is my candidate yet.

Again: I'm dealing with the facts here, not strange assertions about candidates and juice.

NY24Dem said...

Facts, ok. I've been holding off but now I have to tell you, I was at Les Robert's announcement and I wasn't that impressed. Ever since Bush II came onto the stage, polished communications skills have been way sided by the voters, but being a congressman is not just about raising money, it is also about voter connection and many of the people who were there that I talked to weren't that impressed.
With regard to Les's "thunder", has anyone investigated where the money he has is coming from? He has told numerous people that this came from a fundraiser held by his friends. It is too early, wayyy too early, to talk about front runners. Not all of the candidates have announced yet including Mr. Tytler. So let's wait and see what pans out before we talk about frontrunners on the democratic side we should talk about the common enemy Democrats will face after the primary if it's not Sherry: Jones, who is showing strong monetary numbers.

Anonymous said...

the last comment sums it up for me. Roberts seems nice, his wife was charming, but the truth is that the group at his headquarters opening was polite but definitely underwhelmed.

Anonymous said...

Look, Arcuri is clearly going to win the primary (assuming that locals Dems will be silly enough to force one) and then go on to win in November. With Boehlert out, we can win this if we get our act together.